Is Bobby Howry Actually the Best Pitcher on the Cubs? New Statistical Analysis Confirms that No He is Not
August 22, 2008
(Chicago, IL) – These days it seems Chicago Cubs reliever Bobby Howry can’t walk down the streets of Chicago without being booed or openly told that he sucks. And it’s not surprising given his 6.75 ERA in July, and even more eye-popping 7.50 ERA in August.
But is it possible that Bobby Howry is actually the best pitcher on the Cubs this year?
Is it possible that there’s more than meets the eye when it comes to Bobby Howry’s value?
No, it turns out. There’s less.
A modern statistical analysis shows that Bobby Howry is not the best pitcher on the Cubs – he’s the worst. The analysis, performed by graduate students at M.I.T., called upon several disciplines and many of the “new” baseball statistics including ERA+, VORP, WHIP, POP, VOLTRON, and Super ERA.
When everything was said and done, the analysis confirmed that Bobby Howry’s “adjusted value factor” or “AVF” is significantly lower than any other Cubs pitcher – a full 17 value points lower than Jason Marquis. Terrifyingly, the standard deviation for AVF is 1.5.
“It’s really hard to describe how low Howry ended up,” student participant Henry Lee said. “If you can imagine the standard Bell Curve, where the high point is average, and to the left is below average, Bob Howry is so far to the left that we couldn’t quite plot him on the curve.”
“To put it in perspective, the Bell Curve is usually used to show IQ results, with 100 being average, and lower scores displaying on the left – and become less and less likely as you go further left. If this were an IQ test, Bob Howry would be so far to the left that he wouldn’t just be classified as ‘retarded.’ He’d be some kind of super hero level retarded.”
Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano scored a 93; Marquis scored a 19. That puts Bobby Howry at 2. That’s lower than Milwaukee’s Eric Gagne (9), New York’s Kei Igawa (8), and That Hot Dog Vendor Who Was Forced to Throw an Inning for San Diego in a 20-Inning Marathon Game (4).
Earlier: Bobby Howry is also not that bright.